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That leaves seven toss-up states: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). These states have a total of 93 Electoral College votes.
New Hampshire and Virginia are in Harris’s column even though the Trump campaign and some pollsters have felt that either state could be flipped.
If New Hampshire is very close and Virginia is within a couple of points, it could be a sign that Donald Trump is going to have a good night, even if he loses those states. If Trump actually wins either state, and particularly Virginia, then it’s “Goodbye, Kamala” in my view.
Florida is considered to be solidly in Trump’s corner. He won it by three points four years ago. Recent polls have shown Trump up 10 to 14 points this year. If he is winning heavily Hispanic areas like Miami by large margins, that could be an early sign that other Hispanic areas of the country in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania may also go his way.
As voting ends west of the Mississippi, watch Iowa. Two polls came out over the weekend. One was shocking because it had Harris up three points. The other poll had Trump up by 10 points, which seems more likely.
There is some speculation that older women have swung in Harris’s direction. There are indications that the same thing may be happening in Wisconsin. Trump should easily win Iowa. If it’s too close to call, he’s likely in trouble.
If Pennsylvania and North Carolina are both called tonight for one candidate, the odds are overwhelming that the election is over.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses North Carolina, he still has a path to victory if he wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
If Pennsylvania goes for Harris and Trump holds Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he must carry either Michigan or Wisconsin in order to win the election.
The Battle For Congress
The one thing that seems relatively certain is that Republicans will win control of the Senate by a narrow margin. But if they sweep tossup races in states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Republicans could have the biggest Senate majority they have had in decades.
Control of the House of Representatives is a coin toss. There are obvious targets for both parties, especially the “crossover districts.” These are districts that voted for Biden four years ago but are currently represented by a Republican in the House and Democrats representing districts that Donald Trump carried four years ago.
The problem for Republicans is that there are three times as many “Biden-GOP” seats as there are “Trump-Democrat” seats. That said, here are 10 House races to watch that may give us an early clue as to which party will control the House of Representatives next year: ME-2, MI-7, MI-8, NC-1, OH-9, OH-13, PA-7, PA-8, VA-2, and VA-7.
The Endorsement Battle
Kamala Harris has won the endorsement battle of Hollywood celebrities and entertainers hands down. But do people really take their political cues from Hollywood stars? The jury is out.
But in the last 24 hours, there have been two endorsements that may actually mean something in a close election.
One is Joe Rogan. He has 15 million followers on his Spotify podcast. But 50 million people have listened to his three-hour interview with Donald Trump taking any and all questions.
The other is Megan Kelly, who endorsed Donald Trump last night. You may recall that she and Trump had a very unpleasant relationship several years ago. But over the past year, it has become clear that she has moved into his orbit.
Harris has a gender gap with men, and Trump has a gender gap with women. But unlike Hollywood entertainers who are told what to say, Rogan and Kelly actually know and discuss important issues.
Tune In To Family Talk
Please tune in to Dr. James Dobson’s Family Talk radio show. On today’s broadcast, I talk about the threats to our freedom, parental rights, and religious liberty, as well as our obligation to vote to protect our freedom and our rights. You will also hear an inspiring message from actor and author Kirk Cameron and a special prayer for our nation by Shirley Dobson.
You can find station listings here. You can listen online here.
Stay Tuned
We will be closely following the election results and keeping you posted throughout the night on our social media platforms: Facebook, Truth Social, and X. We will also send out brief reports as the night develops.
If you want more, check out the latest Bauer & Rose Podcast, my interview with the Point of View radio show, and my latest opinion piece at The Stream on the threats to our freedom and the stark choice facing us today.
A Final Message
If you haven’t already done so, please VOTE!
It’s no exaggeration to say that this is the most important election in decades. America is at a tipping point. The fate of our country and the future of our children and grandchildren will be decided over the course of the next few hours.
Patriots from past generations sacrificed everything to give you the right to vote. Don’t make their sacrifice a vain effort. Don’t take your rights for granted.
MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD!
VOTE TO DEFEND FAITH, FAMILY, AND FREEDOM!
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